Big Data : Joe McKeehen imitera-t-il Greg Raymer, Jamie Gold et Jonathan Duhamel ?
Le Main Event des World Series of Poker 2015 est en pause et les November Nine ont désormais presque quatre mois de préparation avant l'affrontement terminal. Le chipleader Joe McKeehen possède 32.8% des jetons et plus du double du tapis de son dauphin, Zvi Stern. L'Américain n'est pas assuré de la victoire mais un podium semble presque certain.
PokerNews étudié les données depuis 2004 et 8 des 11 derniers chipleaders à l'entame de l'ultime table se sont hissés dans le Top 3. Joe McKeehen doit donc encore conclure mais l'importance de son avance semble bien le destiner à améliorer la statistique précédente.
Une seule fois durant les années étudiées, le chipleader a terminé hors du Top 5. En 2007, Philip Hilm avait craqué et joué à l'envers pour finalement sortir en 9e position ! L'expérimenté McKeehen ne devrait pas faire cette erreur et s'octroyer un joli billet en novembre.
Le chipleader du Main Event 2015 possède presque 84 grosses blindes d'avance sur le deuxième du classement provisoire soit plus que tous les autres concurrents de la Table Finale. Zvi Stern, deuxième du classement, débutera en effet avec 75 blindes.
McKeehen n'est toutefois pas le joueur qui entre en finale avec le plus d'avance puisqu'en 2009, l'année de la victoire de Joe Cada, Darvin Moon avait commencé la TF avec 100 blindes d'avance sur son dauphin. Le bucheron avait finalement terminé à la deuxième place pour plus de 5 millions de dollars.
L'addition du tapis des cinq derniers du classement provisoire est équivalent à celui du chipleader qui a donc clairement son destin entre les mains pour éviter un destin à la Hilm.
Enfin, McKeehen est le joueur sur la période qui entrera en Table Finale avec la plus grosse proportion de jetons du Main Event WSOP. Avec 32,8%, il devance désormais les 32,4% de Greg Raymer. Fossilman avait triomphé en 2004 et Joe McKeehen compte bien l'imiter... Aucun joueur détenant plus de 30 % des jetons ne s'est d'ailleurs classé au-delà de la seconde place : Greg Raymer, Jamie Gold (32,66 %) et Jonathan Duhamel (30,03 %) se sont tous imposés !
Voici les chiffres pour les Tables Finales depuis 2004 avec la situation au début de la dernière bataille et le classement final.
| Année | Joueur | Jetons | % des jetons | BBs | Classement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Joe McKeehen | 63,100,000 | 32.8% | 158 | -- |
| Ofer Zvi Stern | 29,800,000 | 15.5% | 74.5 | -- | |
| Neil Blumenfield | 22,000,000 | 11.4% | 55 | -- | |
| Pierre Neuville | 21,075,000 | 10.9% | 53 | -- | |
| Max Steinberg | 20,200,000 | 10.5% | 50.5 | -- | |
| Thomas Cannuli | 12,250,000 | 6.4% | 31 | -- | |
| Josh Beckley | 11,800,000 | 6.1% | 29 | -- | |
| Patrick Chan | 6,225,000 | 3.2% | 16 | -- | |
| Federico Butteroni | 6,200,000 | 3.2% | 15.5 | -- | |
| 2014 | Jorryt van Hoof | 38,375,000 | 19.1% | 96 | 3rd - $3,807,753 |
| Felix Stephensen | 32,775,000 | 16.3% | 82 | 2nd - $5,147,911 | |
| Mark Newhouse | 26,000,000 | 13.0% | 65 | 9th - $730,725 | |
| Andoni Larrabe | 22,550,000 | 11.2% | 56.5 | 6th - $1,622,471 | |
| Dan Sindelar | 21,200,000 | 10.6% | 53 | 7th - $1,236,084 | |
| Billy Pappas | 17,500,000 | 8.7% | 44 | 5th - $2,143,794 | |
| William Tonking | 15,050,000 | 7.5% | 38 | 4th - $2,849,763 | |
| Martin Jacobson | 14,900,000 | 7.4% | 37 | 1st - $10,000,000 | |
| Bruno Politano | 12,125,000 | 6.0% | 30 | 8th - $947,172 | |
| 2013 | JC Tran | 38,000,000 | 19.9% | 95 | 5th - $2,106,893 |
| Amir Lehavot | 29,700,000 | 15.6% | 74 | 3rd - $3,727,823 | |
| Marc Etienne McLaughlin | 26,525,000 | 13.9% | 66.5 | 6th - $1,601,024 | |
| Jay Farber | 25,975,000 | 13.6% | 65 | 2nd - $5,174,357 | |
| Ryan Riess | 25,875,000 | 13.6% | 65 | 1st - $8,361,570 | |
| Sylvain Loosli | 19,600,000 | 10.3% | 49 | 4th - $2,792,533 | |
| Michiel Brummelhuis | 11,275,000 | 5.9% | 28 | 7th - $1,225,356 | |
| Mark Newhouse | 7,350,000 | 3.9% | 18.5 | 9th - $733,224 | |
| David Benefield | 6,375,000 | 3.3% | 16 | 8th - $944,650 | |
| 2012 | Jesse Sylvia | 43,875,000 | 22.2% | 146 | 2nd - $5,295,149 |
| Andras Koroknai | 29,375,000 | 14.8% | 98 | 6th - $1,640,902 | |
| Greg Merson | 28,725,000 | 14.5% | 96 | 1st - $8,531,853 | |
| Russell Thomas | 24,800,000 | 12.5% | 83 | 4th - $2,851,537 | |
| Steve Gee | 16,860,000 | 8.5% | 56 | 9th - $754,798 | |
| Michael Esposito | 16,260,000 | 8.2% | 54 | 7th - $1,258,040 | |
| Rob Salaburu | 15,155,000 | 7.7% | 50.5 | 8th - $971,360 | |
| Jake Balsiger | 13,115,000 | 6.6% | 44 | 3rd - $3,799,073 | |
| Jeremy Ausmus | 9,805,000 | 5.0% | 32.5 | 5th - $2,155,313 | |
| 2011 | Martin Staszko | 40,175,000 | 19.5% | 80.5 | 2nd - $5,433,086 |
| Eoghan O’Dea | 33,925,000 | 16.5% | 68 | 6th - $1,720,831 | |
| Matt Giannetti | 24,750,000 | 12.0% | 49.5 | 4th - $3,012,700 | |
| Phil Collins | 23,875,000 | 11.6% | 48 | 5th - $2,269,599 | |
| Ben Lamb | 20,875,000 | 10.1% | 42 | 3rd - $4,021,138 | |
| Bob Bounahra | 19,700,000 | 9.6% | 39.5 | 7th - $1,314,097 | |
| Pius Heinz | 16,425,000 | 8.0% | 33 | 1st - $8,715,368 | |
| Anton Makiievskyi | 13,825,000 | 6.7% | 27.5 | 8th - $1,010,015 | |
| Sam Holden | 12,375,000 | 6.0% | 25 | 9th - $782,115 | |
| 2010 | Jonathan Duhamel | 65,975,000 | 30.0% | 132 | 1st - $8,944,310 |
| John Dolan | 46,250,000 | 21.1% | 92.5 | 6th - $1,772,959 | |
| Joseph Cheong | 23,525,000 | 10.7% | 47 | 3rd - $4,130,049 | |
| John Racener | 19,050,000 | 8.7% | 38 | 2nd - $5,545,955 | |
| Matt Jarvis | 16,700,000 | 7.6% | 33.5 | 8th - $1,045,743 | |
| Filippo Candio | 16,400,000 | 7.5% | 33 | 4th - $3,092,545 | |
| Michael Mizrachi | 14,450,000 | 6.6% | 29 | 5th - $2,332,992 | |
| Soi Nguyen | 9,650,000 | 4.4% | 19 | 9th - $811,823 | |
| Jason Senti | 7,625,000 | 3.5% | 15 | 7th - $1,356,720 | |
| 2009 | Darvin Moon | 58,930,000 | 30.2% | 245.5 | 2nd - $5,182,601 |
| Eric Buchman | 34,800,000 | 17.9% | 145 | 4th - $2,502,890 | |
| Steven Begleiter | 29,885,000 | 15.3% | 124.5 | 6th - $1,587,160 | |
| Jeff Shulman | 19,580,000 | 10.0% | 81.5 | 5th - $1,953,452 | |
| Joe Cada | 13,215,000 | 6.8% | 55 | 1st - $8,546,435 | |
| Kevin Schaffel | 12,390,000 | 6.4% | 51.5 | 8th - $1,300,231 | |
| Phil Ivey | 9,765,000 | 5.0% | 40.5 | 7th - $1,404,014 | |
| Antoine Saout | 9,500,000 | 4.9% | 39.5 | 3rd - $3,479,670 | |
| James Akenhead | 6,800,000 | 3.5% | 28 | 9th - $1,263,602 | |
| 2008 | Dennis Phillips | 26,295,000 | 19.2% | 109.5 | 3rd - $4,517,773 |
| Ivan Demidov | 24,400,000 | 17.8% | 101.5 | 2nd - $5,809,595 | |
| Scott Montgomery | 19,690,000 | 14.4% | 82 | 5th - $3,096,768 | |
| Peter Eastgate | 18,375,000 | 13.4% | 76.5 | 1st - $9,152,416 | |
| Ylon Schwartz | 12,525,000 | 9.2% | 52 | 4th - $3,794,974 | |
| Darus Suharto | 12,520,000 | 9.1% | 52 | 6th - $2,418,562 | |
| Chino Rheem | 10,230,000 | 7.5% | 42.5 | 7th - $1,772,650 | |
| Craig Marquis | 10,210,000 | 7.5% | 42.5 | 9th - $900,670 | |
| Kelly Kim | 2,620,000 | 1.9% | 11 | 8th - $1,288,217 | |
| 2007 | Philip Hilm | 22,070,000 | 17.3% | 92 | 9th - $525,934 |
| Tuan Lam | 21,315,000 | 16.7% | 89 | 2nd - $4,840,981 | |
| Jon Kalmar | 20,320,000 | 15.9% | 84.5 | 5th - $1,255,069 | |
| Raymond Rahme | 16,320,000 | 12.8% | 68 | 3rd - $3,048,025 | |
| Lee Childs | 13,240,000 | 10.4% | 55 | 7th - $705,229 | |
| Lee Watkinson | 9,925,000 | 7.8% | 41.5 | 8th - $585,699 | |
| Hevad Khan | 9,205,000 | 7.2% | 38.5 | 6th - $956,243 | |
| Jerry Yang | 8,450,000 | 6.6% | 35 | 1st - $8,250,000 | |
| Alex Kravchenko | 6,570,000 | 5.2% | 27.5 | 4th - $1,852,721 | |
| 2006 | Jamie Gold | 26,650,000 | 29.2% | 166.5 | 1st - $12,000,000 |
| Allen Cunningham | 17,770,000 | 19.5% | 111 | 4th - $3,628,513 | |
| Richard Lee | 11,820,000 | 13.0% | 74 | 6th - $2,803,851 | |
| Erik Friberg | 9,605,000 | 10.5% | 60 | 8th - $1,979,189 | |
| Paul Wasicka | 7,970,000 | 8.7% | 50 | 2nd - $6,102,499 | |
| Doug Kim | 6,770,000 | 7.4% | 42.5 | 7th - $2,391,520 | |
| Rhett Butler | 4,815,000 | 5.3% | 30 | 5th - $3,216,182 | |
| Michael Binger | 3,140,000 | 3.4% | 19.5 | 3rd - $4,123,310 | |
| Dan Nassif | 2,600,000 | 2.9% | 16 | 9th - $1,566,858 | |
| 2005 | Aaron Kanter | 10,700,000 | 19.0% | 107 | 4th - $2,000,000 |
| Tex Barch | 9,330,000 | 16.6% | 93.5 | 3rd - $2,500,000 | |
| Andy Black | 8,140,000 | 14.5% | 81.5 | 5th - $1,750,000 | |
| Mike Matusow | 7,410,000 | 13.2% | 74 | 9th - $1,000,000 | |
| Steve Dannenmann | 5,460,000 | 9.7% | 54.5 | 2nd - $4,250,000 | |
| Joseph Hachem | 5,420,000 | 9.6% | 54 | 1st - $7,500,000 | |
| Daniel Bergsdorf | 5,270,000 | 9.4% | 52.5 | 7th - $1,300,000 | |
| Scott Lazar | 3,370,000 | 6.0% | 34 | 6th - $1,500,000 | |
| Brad Kondracki | 1,180,000 | 2.1% | 12 | 8th - $1,150,000 | |
| 2004 | Greg Raymer | 8,215,000 | 32.4% | 164.5 | 1st - $5,000,000 |
| Matt Dean | 4,920,000 | 19.4% | 98.5 | 7th - $675,000 | |
| Josh Arieh | 3,205,000 | 12.6% | 64 | 3rd - $2,500,000 | |
| Glenn Hughes | 2,275,000 | 9.0% | 45.5 | 5th - $1,100,000 | |
| Dan Harrington | 2,245,000 | 8.9% | 45 | 4th - $1,500,000 | |
| David Williams | 1,575,000 | 6.2% | 31.5 | 2nd - $3,500,000 | |
| Al Krux | 1,305,000 | 5.1% | 26 | 6th - $800,000 | |
| Mike McClain | 885,000 | 3.5% | 17.5 | 9th - $470,400 | |
| Mattias Anderson | 740,000 | 2.9% | 15 | 8th - $575,000 |
